Numerical Prediction Division
Japan Meteorological Agency
As has been discussed in AMON (Asian Meteorology Online Newsletter), there are many common meteorological interests in Asia which must be solved by ourselves. For example, Typhoon and Asian Monsoon are very important targets for the NWP to respond to the social requirement. Asian people need to develop the NWP model which can give the best forecast for Typhoon track, intensity, monsoon onset, monsoon activity, and heavy precipitation associated with the monsoon. It should also be noted that monsoon and Typhoon are very important issues for the global change studies. If we successfully develop the model for them, we can export the model and sciences to the global community.
Whenever I attend the meeting on modeling in USA, I have seen many Asian people working outside Asia. I believe we have a large potential for the human resources in modeling. As to the computing resources, as far as I know, India, China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand now have the supercomputer for NWP. As is compared to USA, we have more choices on the supercomputing. Japan is now developing the new generation supercomputer called "earth simulator" whose effective speed might be 5TFLOPS in 2001.
a. Establish the Asian center for NWP like ECMWF
Each developed nations contribute to the establishment by both financial support and human resources. It might be the most effective way for the joint development of the high quality NWP system. The biggest problem about this strategy is that this center should affect the national funds for NWP in each country. Under the current political environment, Taiwan may not be able to join the center.
b. Establish the network based center for Asian NWP
Thanks to the recent development of communication network, it is not so difficult to share the development of the NWP model. We may need the off-line meeting for the modeler at least once a year. Copyright issue will be one of the large obstacle for the plan. With informal exchange of the research, it might be possible to work with Taiwan.
This kind of joint development can be expanded from the current trainning exchange. JMA has been supporting the NWP activity at Korea, Hongkong, Singapore, and India, etc. JMA also provides the grid point value (GPV) of the global model to Typhoon comittee member states through RSMC server. We need to ask private sector for sending JMA data to Taiwan.
c. Japan will establish the model development center for Asia-Pacific region
Two big projects have started this year in Japan. One is "earth simulator" which I have already mentioned. The other one is "Frontier Research Program for Global Change". For the success of both programs, the development of the model is highly critical. The programs are now attracting several Asian scientists in USA.
It might be possible to establish the 4DDA center under the joint effort between two programs and JMA. In this center, we can evaluate the model in 4DDA system, develop the leading technology on assimilating satellite data such as TRMM and ADEOS II, and produce the reanalysis as ECMWF, NCEP, and NASA have already done. This center can be a trainning center for researcher from NWP centers in Asia.
I would like to receive any comments from the readers.
Dr. Ken-ichi Kuma