FXUS64 KAMA 091158 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VIGOROUS S/WV ACROSS ERN KS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. FLAT
MID/UPPER FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE S/WV WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS AS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER BESIDES
SOME SCT CI. UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SWD...INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY SAT. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BUT EXPECTED
FROPA WILL BE BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FCST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THRU EARLIER LOCATED WELL DOWNSTATE.
THIS FRONT WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR
TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS PNHDLS ON
SATURDAY. AGAIN...DRY ATMOSPHERE PRECLUDES MENTION OF POPS SO REMOVED
SLGT CHC FROM EARLIER PCKG FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS BOTH FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FAR ENUF AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH UA PATTERN FOR EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WETTER WHILE ECMWF IS DRIER. UNTIL MODEL
AGREEMENT COMES TO PASS...DECIDED TO LEAVE PREVIOUS PCKG INTACT AS
FAR AS POPS GO...THAT IS...A DRY PCKG. OVERALL...UA PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY PERIODIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN BOTH WIND AND TEMP GRIDS FOR NEXT 7 DAYS.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
WET GROUND FROM RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ALONG WITH
LIGHTER WINDS TODAY SHOULD PRECLUDE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CONTINUED DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY NEGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND THUS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/02