FXUS63 KDDC 090740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TSTM
CHANCES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

THE SMALL BUT IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SOUTHWEST KS SEVERE
WEATHER YESTERDAY EVENING WAS ALREADY PUSHING INTO EASTERN KS BY
630Z.  ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE ANOTHER LEESIDE LOW.  MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY...WILL SEE MSLP FALL LIKE A STONE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN KANSAS...WITH SURFACE WINDS RESPONDING
NICELY AFTER MIDDAY.  INCREASED CONVERGENCE AGAIN WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN KANSAS.  WILL GO WITH 20 POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE THREE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES
(HAMILTON-STANTON-MORTON) WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 25-30 POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST DDC-CWA SECTIONS (WEST CENTRAL KS).  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...HOWEVER
RATHER STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN AND WITH STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...EVEN LOWER-MID 40S DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION.  THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.

OVERNIGHT...H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE BEST JUST NORTH OF THE DDC
CWA AND THIS IS WHERE I AM EXPECTING PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH NEAR 30
POPS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF TREGO-ELLIS COUNTIES AND NEGLIGIBLE
POPS SOUTH OF THERE.  BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...SFC-850MB LOWS WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OR THEREABOUTS.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL EJECT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST RESPONSE FOR CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BEING CENTRAL-EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KS ON
SATURDAY.  SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY MIDDAY WITH STRONG 20 TO 30+ MPH NORTHWEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CARRY 40 POPS IN ELLIS COUNTY WITH 20-30 POPS
FROM RUSH TO STAFFORD COUNTY THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS
BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN KANSAS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
WEAKENING SURFACE WINDS...DRY ATMOSPHERE...AND CLEAR SKIES -- IT
SHOULD PROVE TO BE A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FROST EVEN
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 34-36F RANGE. -UMSCHEID

DAYS 3-7...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEADED FOR THE PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG THE
WAVE FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS BEFORE EJECTING IT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT THEN DROPS A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES THE TWO SYSTEMS INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI ON THURSDAY.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM TO BACK UP THIS IDEA.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MODELS DO
SHOW A TREND TOWARD THE WAVE COMING OUT A LITTLE DEEPER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS HOWEVER.  LATER IN THE WEEK THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LARGE
CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
UKMET AND CANADIAN DEVELOP IT FARTHER NORTH OVER CANADA.

AM NOT BUYING INTO THE GFS SOLUTION JUST YET BUT WITH THE OTHER
MODELS SHOWING THE SYSTEM COMING OUT A LITTLE STRONGER...AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THE CLOUDS AND MIST SHOULD BE GONE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  52  67  39 /   0  10  20   0
GCK  74  49  65  36 /  20  20  20   0
EHA  79  49  67  38 /  20  20  10   0
LBL  79  51  67  39 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  73  50  65  37 /  10  30  40  10
P28  75  55  70  44 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN25/02/02




FXUS63 KDDC 092028
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR SOME HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING, WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON SATURDAY, AND COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH VERY COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM -16 TO -20C WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MAKING IT
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNSET. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SMALL POPS
OUT WEST TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MORNING FROM NEAR GOODLAND TO HUGOTON BY 7 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND NOON. GOOD MIXING AND
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A WINDY AFTERNOON WITH
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY
IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA AND WILL ADD TO THE WIND GUSTS WITH
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 70 WITH
WARMER MID 70S SOUTHEAST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT GOOD MIXING CONTINUES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND THE WINDS DECREASE TOWARD
SUNRISE TO AROUND 8 TO 15 MPH. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
2OS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE NEAR
FREEZING ESPECIALLY UP IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE HIGH. HAVE LOWERED GOING FORECAST DOWN A FEW NOTCHES INTO
THE MID 30S. FWC GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 40S LOOKS WAY TOO WARM AND
WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE. NEXT SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FROST ADVISORY.

BY SUNDAY A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AND WARMING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S LOOK GOOD
WITH FORECAST 850MB TEMPS.

DAYS 3-7...

A RELATIVELY QUIET REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES ARE
ANTICIPATING JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ON MONDAY AND
ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL TUESDAY.

TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AROUND
140E WITH AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVIDENT JUST EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM ASIA
ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 140W. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE 120W TO 130W BY TUESDAY AND AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 165W
AS IT PROPAGATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DIGS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UKMET ALL WERE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH THE TROUGH ON THEIR 00Z RUNS...BUT THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SLOWED SOMEWHAT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS. THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG JET OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 40N AND 50N IS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK EAST OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE...AND THE NOTION OF CLOSING OFF A PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE THE BULK OF THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IS REASONABLE.
THE CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE VACILLATED LEAST AMONG THE
MODELS AND LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE GRID MODIFICATIONS.

INCREASING FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON MONDAY. A DEEP CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. GREEN UP
HAS BEEN DELAYED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...AND THERE IS ENOUGH DRY
VEGETATION TO CARRY FIRE. MONDAY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EXCEED 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...BUT
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALREADY WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
BENEATH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
TO SUPPORT SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW, THE NUMERICAL MODELS DROP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ENOUGH
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RIPPLES DOWN THE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AND A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS LIKELY BY 20-21 MAY.

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING
AND COLORADO WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH KANSAS LATER TONIGHT...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BASES GENERALLY AOA 080...WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
LOCAL VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 MILES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  69  37  72 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  49  67  35  73 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  49  70  37  76 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  51  70  36  75 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  50  67  35  69 /  30  40  10   0
P28  55  72  44  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN06/01