FXUS64 KFWD 151952
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS...SURFACE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING TOO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AROUND NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. SHOULD RETURN TO LOW 90S BY
TUESDAY.

HEMISPHERIC MODELS...UPPER FLOW PATTERN CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG
TELECONNECTION PATTERN...SEMI-STABLE FOUR/FIVE WAVE PATTERN FOR THE
NEAR FUTURE...WITH UPPER TROUGHS AT 80W AND 170W AND UPPER RIDGES
AROUND 30W AND 120W. ALSO...A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH EXTENSION
EXTENDS FROM THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY THEN BEGIN TO SEPARATE APART AS UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MID NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY
DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SHOULD SHIFT THE WESTERN RIDGE TO THE EAST COAST WITH A LATE SEASON
UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AMONGST THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THIS SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
REMAINING PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF TROUGH LOCKS UP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SINCE THE GFS HANDLED THIS WEEK/S TROUGH DIVING DOWN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACROSS TEXAS...WE ARE INCLINED
TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  55  79  56  84 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  56  80  55  83 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             70  52  77  53  81 /  10   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            72  53  77  53  82 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  53  76  53  82 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            74  55  79  57  83 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           73  56  80  56  81 /  10   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  57  78  55  82 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            77  57  79  57  83 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/75