FXUS64 KTSA 090818
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A BUSY LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ACROSS KS...CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NE OK.
MAIN SUPERCELL THAT PRODUCED AT LEAST BASEBALL SIZE HAIL IN OSAGE
CTY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NW AR. WILL NEED TO
TAKE A LAST SECOND LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE DECIDING ON MORNING POPS.

PARAMETERS SHOULD BE SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK WINDSHIFT LINE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL LIFT
BACK N THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINLY UNSTABLE
IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STOUT CAP SHOULD
DELAY THE ONSET OF STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A QUICK
WARMUP BY MONDAY AS SLY FLOW RETURNS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM BY EARLY/MID WEEK...AND DON/T PLAN ON STRAYING TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  59  81  50 /  10  10  50  20
FSM   84  58  80  54 /  10  10  60  40
MLC   84  61  85  54 /  10  10  30  20
BVO   77  54  77  48 /  10  10  50  20
FYV   79  52  76  50 /  20  10  60  40
BYV   77  53  73  49 /  20  10  60  50
MKO   80  58  83  52 /  10  10  50  30
MIO   75  53  74  48 /  20  10  60  40
F10   80  59  85  53 /  10  10  40  20
HHW   86  63  85  58 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18




FXUS64 KTSA 091638
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT JUST A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING OUT TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND THIS CLEARING TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE




FXUS64 KTSA 092036
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING.  TONIGHT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FLOATS ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER WAVE FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION  INDUCES LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.   EXACTLY HOW AND
WHERE THAT  SURFACE LOW DEVELOPES  IS NOT AGREED
UPON BY NUMERICAL MODELS.  NAM/WRF FAVORS A MORE
SOUTHERN ENERGY/LOW SOLUTION THAN GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM FAVOR AN ELONGATED STRUNG OUT LOW.
MAJORITY RULES NAM IGNORED.  SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LI LESS THAN / EQUAL MINUS 10 OVER SOUTHEAST OK.
(FOR CAPE FANS > 4000).  ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED  CONVECTION  UPSTREAM
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY CARRY INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AND INHIBIT  NEW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...ANY EARLY CONVECTION WILL
LAY DOWN SOME BOUNDARIES / HIGHWAYS FOR ENHANCED
AFTERNOON STORMS.  MOST LIKELY SEVERE TIME FRAME
SEEMS ABOUT 21Z TO 03Z. SEE HWOTSA.

POST FRONT / TROUGH OFFERS UP A SEASONABLY COOL
DRY DAY SUNDAY. NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS CLOSE TO THE
SATURDAY SCENARIO. DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  50  71 /  10  70  30   0
FSM   55  81  53  70 /  10  60  60   0
MLC   60  85  51  71 /  10  40  30   0
BVO   53  75  47  70 /  10  70  20   0
FYV   51  75  47  65 /  10  70  60   0
BYV   53  73  48  64 /  10  70  70   0
MKO   56  80  50  69 /  10  60  40   0
MIO   52  72  48  66 /  10  70  50   0
F10   58  83  50  70 /  10  50  30   0
HHW   61  85  56  73 /  10  40  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....21