LFC Madness of Fall 2004 Synopsis

Week 1

    The first round started on week 4 this semester, because luckily for the contest, there were exactly 64 contestants this year. However, due to midterms and such, the seeding process did not begin really until Friday, though all the data up until week 3 had been saved. But no worries, the rankings and seedings did not reflect the week 4 results at all (also impossible since the verification for most of the weekend was 0 0 0 Amanda Adams).

    The NW OK Region once again defied all odds and was upset city; and truthfully, only one of the upsets was due to not forecasting. That upper left hand bracket always seems to be a doozie. The highest seeds remaining are (1), (2), and (4). The (2) seed really is a weak (2) seed, with it being Model Tech. Also, the closest game of the whole tournament was between (3) Matt Kumjian and (14) Brenton Leete; where (14) Brenton Leete pulled off the upset in the waning reverifications to move on to the second round. Matt Kumjian was expected to go somewhat deeply into the tourney after his stellar performance last semester as a (10) seed.

    The Nebraska Region was a stark contrast to the NW OK Region. There were no upsets. The closest to an upset was the (10) Lance Maxwell, who actually had 36 points taken on a Model Guidance forecast, but due to the 3 point penalty per non-human forecast, 36+12=48, so (7) Megan Ferris dodged a bullet in Milligan, NE. She moves on to face a tough (2) Jim Southard for a chance to play in Clay Center, NE and a berth into the Sweet Sixteen.

    Interesting times befell The Red River Region, where the (1) Pete Johnson and (3) Shane Young had a horrible week considering their seed. However, (1) Pete Johnson scathed by a very determined (16) Climo Community College. (3) Shane Young was not so lucky, facing (14) Shawn Maroney, who had the best forecast of anyone in the LFC this week. If he can keep this momentum going, he could easily upset ETA A&T for a chance for a trip to Duncan, OK. (4) NWSU-NSOOC (National Weather Service University - Norman and Some Other Odd City) had a scare, defeating (13) Sophia Tantillo by 2 error points. If they do not pull their forecasting abilities together in the second round, they will not be so lucky facing a consistent forecaster like (5) Margret Sturgis.

    Down in the S. Kansas Region, the only upset occurred due to a CLIMO +12 forecast by (6) Joanna Guest, allowing (11) NGM - St. Francis close to a free ride into the second round. It will face (3) Phil Hurlbut, and is expected not to fare well, as it's nickname hints as the "Not Good Model."

    There are some marquee matchups this week in the second round and the second city is not Roswell, NM (it is Des Moines, IA). Severe weather is possible, so look out for a poor outing by Model Tech and its individual players. Zenda, KS has a former LFC winner and a former LFC Madness Champion facing off with (4) Michael Buban and (5) Troy Bell. Troy was vastly underestimated last semester, but he will once again be facing a very tough opponent. Crab Orchard, NE looks to be a good fight as well, between LFC operator (4) Andy Dean and (5) Sean Luchs. (5) Sean Luchs has done well both in the NFC and the LFC, so he should pose a nice challenge to the long-time participant and experience of (4) Andy Dean. Look for a repeat of a shootout and a funnel fight in Okarchee, where (2) Model Tech faces (10) Hayley Baran. If Hayley can show her forecasting initiative and limit the number of error points she takes on POPs, she can feasibly have the upper hand to upset (2) Model Tech, which has no defense.

Week 2

    The tops story this week is the fall of two (1) seeds. Consensus St. was dominated by (8) Kari Austin and (1) Pete Johnson was smothered by (8) Erin Fay. The combined difference was 22 points between both competetions. The Red River Region now turns to (2) Andy Artzer to carry the tops seed through the region.

    The NW OK Region is rebounding from the horrible performance in the first round by many of the top seeds. The (4) Ben Fahrig "buzzsaw" is at it again this year, hoping to three-peat a trip to the Elite Eight. (11) Mason Jackson took care of business by just entering a forecast against (14) Brenton Leete who took CLIMO+12. A pointfest occurred in Okarche, where (2) Model Tech advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.

    Major upset of (1) Consensus St. once again this year. Consensus St. has NEVER reached the Sweet Sixteen, despite being ranked as a (1) seed for the last three contests. All of the games were upsets, technically, in the Nebraska Region. (2) Jim Southard lost due to the penalty associated with a model guidance forecast.

    In the S. Kansas Region, the only noteworthy game was the upset of (3) Phil Hurlbut. After making a miraculous run to the Elite Eight last semester, he falls to the (11) NGM - St. Francis team. (11) NGM - St. Francis has a slim chance of emerging from the region.

    In the Red River Region, (1) Pete Johnson took a surprise beating from (8) Erin Fay. (6) ETA A&T advanced over (14) Shawn Maroney, whose cinderella run is now over. Had (3) Shane Young made it to this game against (6) ETA A&T, he would have beaten this model guidance partner team.

    Two (11) seeds remain as the cinderellas, two (1), three (2), no (3), and two (4). It is very possible that next week there will no longer be any double digit seeds.

Week 3

    This week affirmed the best attempt at seeding thus far attained by the tournament (either by good luck or the fact most of the (15) and (16) seeds did not forecast). The lowest remaining seeds in the Elite Eight are (6) ETA A&T and (6) Bryan Burkholder. THe highest seed to win the madness has never been above an (11), so that fact will definitely improve this semester. This week is also a bit of a landmark for this contest, as there was no rain recorded at either site on either day.

    The NW OK Region will host the first ever (1) vs. (2) matchup in the history of the tournament when the gradually improving (2) Model Tech takes on (1) Clayton Fain in Shattuck, OK. Clayton is currently tied for 4th in the contest, while Model Tech is currently 22nd.

    The Nebraska Region comes down to the matchup of (5) Sean Luchs and (6) Bryan Burkholder. Sean has handily beaten everyone he has faced by at least 8 points up to this point in the tournament. Bryan has usually won up to this point by close margins, except against (7) Megan Ferris this last week. Will it be close or a blowout?

    The other matchup of (5) and (6) is up in the Red River Region, where (5) Margret Sturgis takes on (6) ETA A&T. ETA's performance in the tournament and in the actual contest are astounding; currently 6th overall, it has done much better than anyone could have anticipated. (5) Margret Sturgis is currently 11th overall, and has had strong performances every week in the tournament. This is a matchup to watch.

    Speaking of matchups, one of the closest as far as current standings go is between (2) David Boyd and (4) Michael Buban in the S. Kansas Region. David is currently our leader in the LFC and Michael is tied for fourth. David has been pretty consistent throughout, while Michael has one slip-up in the second round. Luckily he was facing someone who took CLIMO+12 that week. With one mistake out of the way, expect Michael Buban to have a strong outing.

Week 4

    Well the final four are decided. However, this year 2/4 of the forecasters are human. This is the strongest outing by the non-human conference since the beginning of the LFC Madness (which wasn't too long ago I suppose). (2) David Boyd and (6) Bryan Burkholder can try to fend off the statistical attacks of (6) ETA A&T and (2) Model Guidance Tech, to have an only human championship game. Although the scenario could be completely reversed with a no-human championship game. After already forecasting on Thursday while writing this, Thursday was a disaster for (6) Burkholder, who probably will melt down against the (2) Model Tech offense. (6) ETA A&T looked vulnerable this week, but may have picked up points on OKC day 1. We'll see in the end when Michael James updates the scores this weekend. Most likely one of each of the conferences will fall, ending up with a marquee matchup of human vs. Model winner take all final game.