Senior Scientist at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Robert E. Lowry Professor of Meteorology, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma

Address: Sarkeys Energy Center, 100 E. Boyd St., Norman OK, 73019, Rm1322. Tel: (405) 325-6101

Education: License in Meteorology, University of Buenos Aires, 1965; Ph. D., 1971, MIT (Prof. Jule G. Charney, Advisor).

From 1987 to 1997, Dr. Kalnay was the Director of the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC, ex Development Division) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, ex NMC), National Weather Service (NWS). During those ten years there were major improvements in the NWS models' forecast skill. Many successful projects such as the Reanalysis, GCIP, seasonal and interannual dynamical predictions, ensemble forecasting, 3-d and 4-d variational data assimilation, advanced quality control, coastal ocean forecasting, were developed. EMC became a pioneer in both the fundamental science and the practical applications of numerical weather prediction.

The current research interests of Dr. Kalnay are in predictability and ensemble forecasting, numerical weather prediction and data assimilation. With her collaborator Dr. Zhao-Xia Pu she has introduced the method of backward integration of atmospheric models and several novel applications such as FAST 4-D VAR, and targeted observations. With her collaborator Dr. Zoltan Toth, she introduced the breeding method for ensemble forecasting. She is also the author (with Ross Hoffman and Wesley Ebisuzaki) of other widely used ensemble methods known as Lagged Averaged Forecasting and Scaled LAF. She has also published papers on atmospheric dynamics and convection, numerical methods, and the atmosphere of Venus.

She was elected member of the National Academy of Engineering, and has received a number of awards, including the AMS Jule G. Charney award, two gold medals and one silver medal from the Department of Commerce, the NASA medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement, and the Presidential Rank Executive Service Award.

Toth, Zoltan and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.

Tracton, MS, and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: Practical aspects. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 379-398, 1993.

White, G., E. Kalnay, R. Gardner and M. Kanamitsu, 1993: The skill of precipitation and surface temperature forecasts by the NMC global model during DERF II, Mon. Wea. Rev. 121, 805-814, 1993.

Reynolds, Carolyn A., Peter J. Webster and Eugenia Kalnay, 1994: Random error growth in NMC's global forecasts,. Mon. Wea. Rev, 122, 1281-1305.

Mo, KC, X. L. Wang, R. Kistler, M. Kanamitsu and E. Kalnay, 1995: Impact of satellite data on the CDAS-reanalysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 124-139.

Wobus, R. and E. Kalnay, 1995: Three years of operational prediction of forecast skill,. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2132-2148.

Kalnay, E. 1995: Numerical Weather Prediction,. Computers in Physics, 9, 488-495.

Toth, Zoltan and Eugenia Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP: the breeding method,. Mon. Wea. Rev.,125, 3297-3318

E. Kalnay, E. , M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K. C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, Roy Jenne, Dennis Joseph, 1996: The NMC/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project". Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1996, March issue (it also contains the first CD ROM ever published by the AMS with 13 years of reanalysis).

Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth and E. Kalnay, 1997: A comparison of Lyapunov vectors and optimal vectors in a low resolution general circulation model. Tellus, 49A, 200-227.

Pu, Z-X., E. Kalnay, J. Derber and J. Sela,1997: An inexpensive technique for using past forecast errors to improve future forecast skill. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 123, 1035-1054.

Pu, Z-X, E. Kalnay, J. Sela, and I. Szunyogh, 1997: Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions with a quasi-inverse linear model, Mon. Wea. Rev. ,125, 2479-2503.

Pu, Z-X., E. Kalnay, D Parrish, W. Wu and Z. Toth, 1997: The use of the bred vectors in the NCEP operational 3-dimensional variational system. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 689-695.

Kalnay, E. (chair), David Anderson, Andrew Bennett, Antonio Busalacchi, Stephen Cohn, Philippe Courtier, John Derber, Andrew Lorenc, David Parrish, Jim Purser, Nobuo Sato, and Thomas Schlatter, 1997: Proceedings of the Panel Discussion: Data Assimilation in the Ocean and in the Atmosphere: What should be next?",. J. Meteor. Soc. of Japan, in press.

Toth, Zoltan, Eugenia Kalnay, Steve Tracton, Richard Wobus, and Joseph Irwin, 1997: A synoptic evaluation of the NCEP ensemble. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 140-153.

Pu, Z-X., SJ Lord and E Kalnay, 1998: Forecast Sensitivity with Dropwindsonde Data and Targeted Observations. Tellus, in press.