For my master's thesis, funded by Project Comet-Tinker, I am using numerical forecasts produced during the Storm and Mesoscale Ensemble Experiment (SAMEX) in May of 1998. This project included the cooperation of several meteorological organizations, including the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms(CAPS), the National Severe Storms Laboratory(NSSL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP), the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).

In real time during May 1998, numerical models ran at each of the institutions. Models runs from NSSL (MM5), NCEP (Eta and RSM) and CAPS (ARPS) were combined to produce a 25 member ensemble forecast with a 30 km resolution. The organizations in the experiment also produced several model runs of intermediate resolution (9-12 km).

My goal is to assess the performance of the ensemble vs. the smaller scale model runs. Along with the 30 km ensemble, I hope to combine the four intermediate scale forecasts produced during SAMEX into a crude 4 member ensemble. I will then compare these forecasts to a 3 km forecast produced by ARPS. Although I will only be performing verification statistics for three days during the forecast period, I hope this project will at least provide an initial comparison of the short range ensemble vs. storm scale techniques.

If you want to see real time forecasts produced by the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), go to HubCAPS

NEW! To see the forecasts from the ARPS model runs I am analyizing, click here.