Probabilities within 200 km of KOUN |
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| Hours | Tornado | Hail | 1 inch+ rains | Data collection |
| Tue 10am - Tue 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Tue 4pm - Wed 4am | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Wed 4am - Wed 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Wed 4pm - Thu 4am | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate |
| Thu 4am - Fri 4am | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate |
| -- Low: 0% to 33% -- Moderate: 33% to 67% -- High: 67% to 100% -- | ||||
FORECAST - 1000am Tuesday 18 March: The radar is in the midst a long period of technical difficulties. It is unknown when the radar will again become available. Today and Tonight: Rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue re-orient into a NW-SE band across the northeastern half of Oklahoma. While this activity will stay in KOUN range much of the day, the storms capable of producing large hail will stay well to the southeast. This activity will gradually move out of KOUN range during the late afternoon and evening. With 500 mb temperatures falling below -20C, and surface dewpoints holding near 50F, there is an outside chance a few thunderstorms may redevelop across western Oklahoma late this afternoon if there is enough insolation. If they develop, these storms will pose a hail threat, though they will quickly dissipate around sunset. Wednesday through Thursday evening: Better insolation is expected during the afternoons Wednesday and Thursday. With temperatures approaching 70F, dewpoints in the mid to upper 40sF, and 500 mb temperatures of -20C to -25C, scattered thunderstorms should develop both afternoons. These storms will likely produce some hail. OUTLOOK: A brief lull Friday as the low pulls away. A shortwave trough passes by Saturday and may produce some precipitation, though the atmosphere will likely be too cool to support thunderstorms. Fast zonal flow will develop next week, with a chance of another storm system on or about Tuesday. ...Scharf