Probabilities within 200 km of KOUN |
||||
| Hours | Tornado | Hail | 1 inch+ rains | Data collection |
| Sun 10am - Sun 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Sun 4pm - Mon 4am | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Mon 4am - Mon 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Mon 4pm - Tue 4am | Low | HIGH | Moderate | HIGH |
| Tue 4am - Wed 4am | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate |
| -- Low: 0% to 33% -- Moderate: 33% to 67% -- High: 67% to 100% -- | ||||
UPDATE/FORECAST - 700pm Sunday 16 March: The radar developed a problem immediately upon being turned on this afternoon. The problem is being diagnosed and it is unclear when it will again become available. Showers developed along the dryline in the Texas Panhandle but failed to organize into thunderstorms. Disorganized activity is expected to develop overnight as the low level jet increases moisture transport. This activity is likely to produce some lightning and may produce some isolated small hail, but widespread/significant events are not expected. NOWCAST - 155pm Sunday 16 March: Cu or small TCu are forming along the dryline between CDS and LBB. Another area of surface convergence has developed near Gage in a region of weaker CIN. A narrow corridor of 56-59 dewpoints has developed across the western half of Oklahoma coincident with a weak developing low level jet. Thunderstorms may develop by 4pm near Gage and southwest of Childress, and move northeast. Deep layer shear is insufficient for supercells, though enough directional shear may exist to promote marginal storm organization with some hail potential. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads will promote outflow dominant storms. UPDATE - 1015am Sunday 16 March: The air conditioner has been repaired, and we are ready for operations. FORECAST - 10am Sunday 16 March: The air conditioner has apparently failed in the radar shop, so the radar cannot currently be operated. It is unknown when the radar will again be available. Today: Precipitation is not expected until late in the afternoon. The capping inversion and meager moisture will delay thunderstorm development along the dryline until the region comes under the influence of weak differential cyclonic vorticity advection around sunset. Tonight: Any thunderstorms that form along the dryline will move eastward toward central Oklahoma. These storms are likely to be multicell and outflow dominant due to meager low level moisture, large dewpoint depressions and weak deep layer shear. However, these storms are likely to produce a threat of small to marginally severe hail. With loss of afternoon heating, these thunderstorms will likely decrease by midnight. Monday: Low level moisture return will continue to be tempered by convection and variable winds over the Texas coastal plain. However, deep layer shear will increase significantly, particularly over the southeastern half of Oklahoma. The better upper support will induce stronger convergence along the dryline, which by mid afternoon will be about 100 miles west of Interstate 35. With a rapid increase in DCVA during the afternoon, thunderstorms will rapidly develop around 4pm and move quickly into central Oklahoma. These thunderstorms will have a significant risk of large hail, and will also produce some heavy rain. The meager moisture may limit the tornado threat, except across southeastern Oklahoma. Monday night: With better upper support, Monday afternoon's thunderstorms will likely continue slowly eastward into eastern Oklahoma. Tuesday: Although the best low level moisture will be swept eastward Monday night, dewpoints in the 40s, insolation and temperatures in the 60s, along with cold temperatures near -25 C at 500 mb, will lead to a scattered coverage of thunder- storms during the afternoon. These storms will likely produce hail. OUTLOOK: Tuesday night and beyond: The effects of the cold upper low will persist through Thursday afternoon, with a threat of afternoon convection with hail remaining. A shortwave trough may approach in the prevailing northwest flow Saturday. ...Scharf