Probabilities within 200 km of KOUN |
||||
| Hours | Tornado | Hail | 1 inch+ rains | Data collection |
| Mon 10am - Mon 4pm | Low | Moderate | Moderate | HIGH |
| Mon 4pm - Tue 4am | Low | HIGH | Moderate | HIGH |
| Tue 4am - Tue 4pm | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate |
| Tue 4pm - Wed 4am | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate |
| Tue 4am - Wed 4am | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate |
| -- Low: 0% to 33% -- Moderate: 33% to 67% -- High: 67% to 100% -- | ||||
FORECAST - 1000am Monday 17 March: Today-Tonight: Elevated convection is already taking place across much of western Oklahoma. As of 10am, 40-45 dBZ echoes were developing near Hobart. The radar may be turned on shortly. Convection is expected to increase in coverage and intensity as daytime heating increases instability, and stronger DCVA induces stronger upward motion. By mid-late afternoon, widespread thunderstorms are expected across the western half of Oklahoma, with hail threat increasing by the hour. These storms will slowly march eastward across Oklahoma, and remain in KOUN range well into the evening. Tuesday-Tuesday night: A brief lull is expected during the morning. However, a stronger shortwave trough will rotate around the upper low Tuesday afternoon. Although dewpoints will only be in the 40s, insolation will bring afternoon temperatures well into the 60s. With 500 mb temperatures between -20C and -25C, there will be enough instability for another round of thunderstorms developing later in the afternoon. Some of the storms may produce hail. The most likely region for convection will be across the northeast half of Oklahoma. OUTLOOK: Wednesday and beyond: Upper low will remain overhead through Thursday evening, so will maintain threat for marginal hail-producing thunderstorms. A shortwave trough will pivot through in northwest flow Saturday, and a cold rain appears likely. Another major trough may move into the region early next week. ...Scharf