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OWL Forecast Discussion

Oklahoma Weather Lab Discussion



Forecast Discussion
Oklahoma Weather Lab
Issued:  7:47 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2008


The cold front is currently just north of 1-40 at the moment.  This means that
temperatures in the Northern and Central zones have already reached their high
temperatures for today, as strong cold air advection will prevent temperatures
from increasing.  The southern zones will warm up some, but the cold front is
expected to move through by midday.  The 12Z OUN sounding shows an increase in
moisture throughout the profile, although moisture remains fairly limited. There
was warm air advection at 850mb on the 850mb map at 00Z.  The 12Z sounding shows
an increase in temperature at 850mb and temperatures remaining above freezing
below 700 mb.  The 700mb map shows relatively zonal flow in the Southwest US
with some embedded shortwave troughs.  Both models show a trough will develop in
the Southwest US today and begin moving eastward.  The location of the trough
formation is consistent with the 500mb temperature advection pattern at 00Z.  

The trough put Oklahoma in a region of positive vorticity advection which will
provide sufficient forcing for precipitation beginning tonight through Friday. 
Given the warm temperatures aloft, the precipitation will either be rain or
freezing rain for the Central and Southern zones.  The southern zones are
forecasted to be above freezing at the surface, so most of the precipitation
should be rain.  The Central zones will be near freezing for most of tomorrow
and Friday, so some icing is expected.  The low-level air in the northern zones
will drop below freezing faster, allowing the precipitation to changeover to
sleet and snow.  Overall, significant precipitation amounts are not expected
given the limited moisture and forcing.  Precipiation will end from west to east
on Friday, with the western and central zones clearing out by midday. 
Temperatures will warm up quickly on Saturday as southerly flow and clear
conditions return to the area.  Another system will arrive by the end of the
weekend.

 

Forecasters:
Bodine/Christenberry


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