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| OWL Links | 6:06 PM CDT on Sunday, March 21, 2010 | |||||||||||||||
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OWL Forecast DiscussionForecast Discussion Oklahoma Weather Lab Issued: 7:47 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2008 The cold front is currently just north of 1-40 at the moment. This means that temperatures in the Northern and Central zones have already reached their high temperatures for today, as strong cold air advection will prevent temperatures from increasing. The southern zones will warm up some, but the cold front is expected to move through by midday. The 12Z OUN sounding shows an increase in moisture throughout the profile, although moisture remains fairly limited. There was warm air advection at 850mb on the 850mb map at 00Z. The 12Z sounding shows an increase in temperature at 850mb and temperatures remaining above freezing below 700 mb. The 700mb map shows relatively zonal flow in the Southwest US with some embedded shortwave troughs. Both models show a trough will develop in the Southwest US today and begin moving eastward. The location of the trough formation is consistent with the 500mb temperature advection pattern at 00Z. The trough put Oklahoma in a region of positive vorticity advection which will provide sufficient forcing for precipitation beginning tonight through Friday. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the precipitation will either be rain or freezing rain for the Central and Southern zones. The southern zones are forecasted to be above freezing at the surface, so most of the precipitation should be rain. The Central zones will be near freezing for most of tomorrow and Friday, so some icing is expected. The low-level air in the northern zones will drop below freezing faster, allowing the precipitation to changeover to sleet and snow. Overall, significant precipitation amounts are not expected given the limited moisture and forcing. Precipiation will end from west to east on Friday, with the western and central zones clearing out by midday. Temperatures will warm up quickly on Saturday as southerly flow and clear conditions return to the area. Another system will arrive by the end of the weekend. Forecasters: Bodine/Christenberry |
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