[Excerpted from The Earth Times, May 25 1997]
WASHINGTON--Like the disintegration of Antarctica's ice shelves--five have broken off in the last 50 years--the human endeavor to address climate change Is accelerating. Five years after the Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed, the majority of the industrial countries- who agreed they must take the lead--are unlikely to meet the voluntary aim of returning their emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels. But in Kyoto, Japan this December, these countries are being persuaded to commit to dramatically cutting back their emissions of greenhouse gases during the 21st century, and to help other countries limit and ultimately reduce their emissions as well.
Our understanding of climate change has advanced tremendously in a short period of time. Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations panel of 2,500 leading scientists, agreed that "a discernible human influence on global climate" can already be detected among the many natural variabilities of the climate. According to the panel, the Earth's surface temperature has warmed by approximately .6 degree Celsius over the past century. Carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels climbed to 6.25 billion tons in 1996, a new record. In fact, 1996 was among the five warmest years on record since data collection on global temperature began in 1866. It is also estimated that economic damages from weather-related disasters reached a record $60 billion in 1996.
According to the IPCC, a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations would increase the Earth's temperature between 1 and 3.5 degrees Celsius, While this may not seem like much, it is equivalent to returning to the last Ice age--when New York City was covered with ice--but in the opposite direction. The rate of warming, moreover, would be faster than anything seen in the last 100,000 years--making it difficult for many of the world's ecosystems to adapt.
Among the many economic, social, and environmental dislocations we can expect in a warmer world, the dangers to human health loom especially large. According to the World Health Organization, even small increases in temperature can cause dramatic rises in deaths from extreme heat events; the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria, dengue, and cholera; and shortages of food and water. The IPCC puts it plainly: "Climate change is likely to lead to significant loss of life."
With these very real health risks in mind, the denial by many industries of the seriousness of climate change begins to resemble the tobacco industry's attempts to tarnish the debate on smoking. Fortunately, the IPCC has maintained its scientific integrity despite ad hominem attacks by the most extreme "carbon club." What's more, these lobbies are beginning to lose member's as their credibility weakens and the public becomes more familiar with their tactics--perhaps in the fear that, like their brethren in the tobacco industry, they may one day face exorbitant lawsuits for their effect on human health.
Meanwhile, industries with an interest in slowing climate change are getting politically organized. The insurance industry--reeling from a decade of weather-related disasters--appeared at climate talks last year in Geneva to press for emissions cuts. Also becoming high-profile Is a diverse group of sustainable energy entrepreneurs, ranging from energy efficiency, natural gas, and renewable sources like solar energy and wind power--now the world's fastest-growing energy source.
Joining the progressive industry forces in Kyoto will be a vibrant cross section of civil society--among them environmental NGOS, church groups, youtnetworks, they have been a vocal presence at climate talks since their beginning. And they have only grown in influence and power--joined by nascent environmental movements around the world--including in the host nation, Japan.
Just over 50 years ago, Kyoto was spared from tho destruction of the hydrogen bomb--because of its cultural significance as the ancient home of the Japanese empire--during the Second World War. In today's warming world, as former empires come to terms with perhaps the most serious consequence of their industrial revolutions, Kyoto must now attain another, more peaceful, place in history as the site where humanity spared itself from disastrous levels of climate change. The IPCC that warns us also provides hope, pointing out that significant reductions in emissions are both technically and economically possible.
What's needed now is the political will to take those final steps on the road to Kyoto. Whether we like it or not, we are all subjects in this massive unintended experiment--even though, as public health scientists note, we have not given our "prior informed consent." Ultimately, then, we must all become active constituents in the climate change debate, pressuring our political leaders to ensure that Kyoto's legacy of success will be realized.