Global climate change is likely to have disparate impacts on the developed and less developed nations of the world. A recent modeling study predicts that developed countries--the primary emitters of carbon dioxide--would benefit while underdeveloped countries would suffer, according to researcher Michael Schlesinger of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Schlesinger and colleagues ran two versions of a general circulation model on supercomputers at the NSF-supported National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Simulating a two-degrees-Centigrade increase in global temperature as a result of doubled atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide they expect to prevail by about the year 2060, the researchers used the models' geographic distribution of temperature and precipitation changes to determine specific annual changes in these factors for 184 countries. In addition to these data, they used economic data on agriculture, forestry, coastal resources, energy and tourism to calculate market impacts of the potential changes.
``Clearly, some countries will be big winners and others will be large losers,'' says Schlesinger. ``For example, Canada, the former Soviet Union, and the United States would receive (estimated) annual benefits of $31 billion, $39 billion, and $22 billion, respectively.''
The countries that would suffer the most from global warming are island nations. ``These countries have long coastlines, sensitive tourism industries, and small, undeveloped economies,'' explains Schlesinger. Of the continents, Europe and North America would benefit, while others, including Australia, would fare poorly.
Schlesinger maintains, however, that natural variability in the climate system may be of more importance than changes in temperature and precipitation. ``So this is not yet the end of the story,'' he says.