Following the Great Drought of 1877, H.F. Blanford issued the first seasonal forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall in 1884. More than 100 years later, forecasts and hindcasts (backcasts) of the Asian summer monsoon are still being made using statistical regression. General circulation models are also capable of capturing some of the features of the Asian summer monsoon and may be able to give improved short-term forecasts.
Unlike ENSO predictions, however, very little material appears to be directly available on the internet and therefore in August 1997 we created a web site which aims to remedy this deficit. On this site, we have been working towards the broad aim of putting together: a) information pertinent to predicting the Asian monsoon, and b) predictions (forecasts or hindcasts) of the Asian monsoon. Information on the latest monsoon status is also included, for those who are interested in real-time monsoon-watch. In due course, we hope that the site becomes a useful repository of information for scientific researchers interested in the Asian monsoon and its prediction. We would also like to have a forum on this site for on-line debate on the topic, if there is sufficient interest.
The web site is still very much in its infancy and we would therefore appreciate any remarks you may have concerning the page and any additional material that you feel should be included. Please contact us at the adress given above.
The URL adress of the Asian monsoon prediction web site is:
*** http://www.meteo.fr/perso/david.stephenson/monsoon.html ***
and like the Asian monsoon, the site is being continually updated
daily so please keep watching the site for latest information.