El Niño-Spawned Havoc Continuing Into May in Many Regions: UN Report

[Korea Times, 03/05/98]

GENEVA (AP) - Havoc wreaked by the El Niño climate phenomenon appears to have peaked in Australia, but more problems are in store for western and southern United States and other parts of the world, a U. N. report predicted Tuesday.

The World Meteorological Organization said experts see El Niño-spawned storms and drought continuing into May in many regions.

The forecasters, working on what weather pattern will follow El Niño, believed a return to normal was considered the most likely, WMO said. But the reverse pattern La Niña remained a possibility, and there is an outside chance El Niño would continue.

WMO's El Niño Update summarized the global impact of the phenomenon, which stems from a large pool of unusually warm water that moves across the Pacific toward South America roughly every three to four years.

The report said there had been a decline in sea temperature off Peru and Ecuador during the past month, but this was normal for the time of year and ``does not indicate a weakening of the El Niño episode,'' the strongest on record.

The worst of the phenomenon will come during April and will weaken from May to July, the report said. ``Increased storminess and wetter-than-normal conditions are expected to continue over California and the southern third of the United States,'' it said, adding that it will remain warmer over much of central North America.

Drier than normal conditions were expected over northern South America and parts of southern Africa, the report said. It also will continue drier than usual in Indonesia, where forest fires doused by monsoon rains have resumed.

Weather experts meeting under WMO auspices in different parts of the world have been looking farther ahead, the report said.

At a meeting in Singapore last month, they said there is a 50-50 chance Southeast Asia will return to normal weather starting in May. Even though that would mean a return to normal rainfall, Indonesia ordinarily experiences a dry season until October so forest fires and haze could continue.

The next most likely scenario - at 35 percent - is that the La Nina cool water phenomenon could follow, which would bring more rain to the region.

La Niña, a pool of colder-than-normal water in the Pacific, has the opposite effect to El Nino, bringing heavy rain where it was dry and drought where it was wet.

Finally, there is a 15 percent chance that El Niño will continue past May in Southeast Asia, the forecasters said.