by Jessica Gregg McNew, DisasterRelief.org Writer
For some weary weather watchers and meteorologists tired of the attention, the news couldn't come soon enough: El Niņo is finally waning.
As late as May 20, weather forecasters told DisasterRelief.org that warm waters remained in the Pacific Ocean and showed little sign of disappearing.
But in the last few weeks, something has happened. The easterly trade winds that ceased, leading to the warming of eastern Pacific Ocean waters or El Niņo, picked back up again.
"We finally got our easterly trade winds back," says Wayne Higgins, a senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland. The center monitors the global climate with a particular focus on El Niņo and related weather events.
Now, instead of warmer than normal Pacific Ocean waters, there could be a La Niņa or a cooling off in the ocean's surface temperatures. Since the end of May, meteorologists have watched a deep pocket of cold water emerge in the central Pacific and begin to rise to the surface.
"We're now at the cusp of a developing cold event," Higgins says. "We're definitely making the transition as we speak."
La Niņa conditions already are showing up near Australia and Indonesia, which could expect "copious rain" in the coming months, says Dr. Mike Richman, a meteorologist with the University of Oklahoma in Norman.
But on the eastern side of the Pacific, which hasn't yet felt the effects of the cool waters, El Niņo conditions still prevail. The difference is that they have much less of an impact than when El Niņo was stronger, earlier this year, Richman says.
Meteorologists differ on when a La Niņa might emerge and how strong it will be. We could see it as early as this fall and it could last as long as next spring, both Higgins and Richman agree. The strength of the easterly trade winds will determine that.
"I think the jury is still out on La Niņa, but it looks like El Niņo is on its last gasp right now," Richman says.
During a La Niņa phase, Asia can expect more rain, particularly in Southeast Asia. Mexico can expect dry conditions. In addition, the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be active.
For the United States, the results are almost opposite of El Niņo conditions -- California can expect dry weather and the Pacific Northwest can expect more rain. Much of the Plains States also will experience dry weather, Higgins says. In fact, some forecasters blame the Midwest drought of 1988 on La Niņa conditions.
There is no pattern to El Niņo or La Niņa conditions. The one doesn't necessarily follow the other or affect its strength. For example, 1974 to 1976 were all La Niņa years, Higgins says.
With all this attention focused on the Pacific Ocean, scientists eventually hope to discover what causes El Niņo. They don't know if it is a matter of the ocean affecting the atmosphere or of the atmosphere affecting the ocean.
"It's really the $64 million question. There are modelers all over the world trying to discover why we have El Niņo," Higgins says.
The benefit of all the publicity in the last year is that most Americans, as well as residents of other countries affected by the phenomenon, now know what El Niņo is. A few years ago that wasn't true.
Higgins and his four other coworkers have been "swamped by media calls" since the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean turned unusually warm. In fact, we weren't even very far into 1998 before the team of meteorologists had logged 1,000 interviews.
"I got to tell you, we do research too," Higgins says with a laugh.