The 1998 hurricane season drew to a fitting close on Monday, with Hurricane Nicole spinning itself out in the Atlantic and thousands of Hondurans fleeing their homes as new floods reopened the raw wounds left by one of the century's most powerful storms, Mitch. Unfortunately, the world's preeminent hurricane forecaster said 1999 probably will be worse.
William Gray, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University and the man to whom many look for hurricane prognostications, admitted that he underestimated this year's hurricane count and suggested the coming years could be even worse.
For the citizens of Honduras, Nicaragua, and other regions of Central America, it's difficult to imagine how much worse it could get. Last month, Mitch -- one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Caribbean -- clobbered the area with 180 mph winds and several feet of rain. When the clouds lifted, more than 10,000 people were dead, millions were homeless, and rulers of the poverty stricken area were wondering how to pay for the $4 billion recovery operation.
``Hurricane Mitch, which wreaked such devastation on Central America, was the strongest late-season storm on record,'' said Gray. But he added that 1999 and beyond probably will be worse. ``We are going to see the return of some of these type of storms,'' Gray warned. ``People have to face up to it. The insurance industry has a major problem.''
Even when taking into account 1997's ``off year'' when a monster El Nino suppressed storm formations, hurricane activity between 1994-1998 was the highest ever recorded. During that four-year period, the Atlantic Basin produced 53 named storms, 32 hurricanes, and 15 major hurricanes. Gray said a number of factors, including the fading of the recent record-setting El Nino and warmer sea temperatures, will lead to stronger hurricane seasons in coming years. Despite being hammered by three hurricanes and four tropical storms, Gray said the United States actually was fortunate this year. ``We were lucky because none of these seven named storms was of major hurricane intensity,'' he said. Hurricanes Bonnie and Georges came close to major hurricane status, but both substantially weakened before making landfall in the U.S.
In all, 1998 witnessed 10 Atlantic hurricanes and four tropical storms. The season was the Atlantic's most destructive in 200 years and caused billions in damages. And perhaps most unusual, in September the Atlantic played host to four hurricanes simultaneously (Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl), the first time that has happened since 1893.
The Pacific hurricane season was normal, with 13 named storms and nine hurricanes. Only one of the storms actually made landfall. Howard, with 150 mph winds, was the strongest Pacific storm, but it never came close to land. The year's final hurricane (at least during the official hurricane season), formed late Sunday. But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said they expect Hurricane Nicole to weaken as it churns north into cooler North Atlantic waters. Many storm watchers consider the late-season storm to be an appropriate send-off for an unpredictable and violent hurricane season.