Russia and Japan are developing satellites that would provide early warning of earthquakes and solar flares. If plans for the projects materialize, the Russian satellite for detecting earthquakes could be launched by 2001 and the Japanese satellite could be launched as early as 2005.
The 120-kg Russian satellite, called Predvestnik E, would be the first of a constellation of spacecraft capable of providing global early warning of major earthquake activity. Designed to detect changes in the ionosphere that occur prior to major earthquakes, the satellite would orbit the earth at an altitude of 450 km at an inclination of 65°. Project officials hope to forecast earthquakes between two days and two hours in advance.
As currently designed, the spacecraft would carry an FM-4 stationary field magnetometer for measuring the components of magnetic fields; a hydroxyl spectrometer to measure the distribution and intensity of hydroxyl and atomic oxygen emissions; an infrared spectrometer to measure electric field density; a high-energy particle monitor, and a video-photo metric system to measure intensity and frequency of light discharge and atmospheric glow.
That equipment will monitor processes that occur in the earth's crust prior to earthquakes, scientists said. Those processes change the chemical composition of underground water and atmospheric gases at the epicenter of the developing quake, they explained. The equipment also measures increases in the emission of radioactive substances into the atmosphere, such as radon gas and charged aerosols. These processes cause temperature fluctuations in the area above the coming quake and alters electric parameters of the earth's ionosphere.
A pending earthquake results in changes in all major atmospheric characteristics, including electric field intensity, plasma transfer rate, concentration of electrons, plasma ionic composition, and longitudinal currents and wave disturbance in various frequency bands, according to the scientists.
As for the Japanese, that nation's Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (MPT) hopes to launch a spacecraft in six years that will give satellite operators advance warning of solar flares. MPT has allocated 370 million yen ($3.14 million) in research funding for the project. Although still in the conceptual stage, MPT envisions a satellite weighing less than 500 kg to be placed in an observing location called Lagrange point 5 in time to catch the solar maximum in 2011. Solar activity is now rising toward the next maximum in 2000-2001.
From the Lagrange point 5 position, a satellite carrying a 10-cm diameter telescope could identify dangerous solar flares on the sun's surface, warning satellite operators before the flares reach Earth. The flares can bring surges of high-energy protons and ions that can disrupt delicate semiconductors and electronics. They also eject hypersonic plasma waves, energizing the earth's protective Van Allen Radiation Belt and causing more harmful radiation. Project officials believe the satellite would allow operators to issue emergency bulletins two to four hours before potentially dangerous ejections reach spacecraft.
Project planning is expected to be completed by 2001, officials predicted. MPT then will ask for a development budget, estimated at 20 billion yen. Japan's National Space Development Agency (NASDA), which is helping with the planning, would build the satellite.
MPT has been monitoring solar weather since 1988. Solar flares created newspaper headlines in February 1994 when one temporarily knocked out the nation's BS-3a satellite's live transmission of the Winter Olympics, according to officials.