"We go forward with confidence in the WMO to apply meteorology more fully to the service of mankind"
These words uttered by Sir Nelson Johnson, the last President of the International Meteorological Organisation (IMO), ushered a new era that led to the transition of IMO from a non-governmental body set up in Vienna in 1873, to the establishment on 23 March 1950 of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an inter-governmental organization. In 1951, WMO became a specialized agency of the United Nations.
Today, as we celebrate this unique World Meteorological Day, marking the fiftieth anniversary of WMO, we take a retrospective look into half-a-century of existence to gauge how far the confidence of the founding fathers have been fulfilled in our time, and also to assess the challenges that lie ahead in the context of the vision for the Organization.
In its pioneering role, IMO promoted international cooperation in the field of meteorology through the commitment of several generations of forward-looking meteorologists. Such cooperation was further propelled by technological revolution and scientific progress in the 20th century. WMO built on such developments to promote advances of meteorology, hydrology and related geophysical sciences and to encourage their applications to the welfare of humanity. WMO is today recognized as the UN system's authoritative voice on the state and behaviour of the Earth's atmosphere, its interaction with the land surface and oceans, the climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources.
The roots and the strength of WMO are embedded in global cooperation as weather and climate do not recognize political or economic boundaries. A unique feature of WMO is that its Members contribute voluntarily to the scientific and operational work of the Organization. WMO was founded to facilitate world-wide cooperation for making meteorological, hydrological and related geophysical observations, for encouraging standardization and exchange of such data and for their practical applications in support of weather-sensitive socio-economic sectors such as agriculture, water resources management, aviation and shipping. WMO's support for research, training and technical cooperation has become indispensable in its quest for capacity building and ensuring that the national Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of each of its 185 Members continue to contribute and benefit from this global effort.
The United Nations Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, has called WMO the "original networker". A major impetus to this networking process was the advent of new satellite technology that spawned the 1961 United Nations resolution on "international cooperation in the peaceful uses of outer space". This resolution led to the launching in 1963 of the World Weather Watch (WWW) which has become the basic Programme of WMO. Today, the WWW coordinates the collection, processing, and dissemination of standardized meteorological and oceanographic data and information from a constellation of polar orbiting and geostationary meteorological satellites, 10,000 land-based stations, 1000 upper air stations, 7,300 ships, 300 moored buoys, 600 drifting buoys, and 3,000 aircraft which are complemented by over 70,000 observations daily. A unique network of three World Meteorological Centres, 34 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres and 185 National Meteorological Centres works in unison to collect, process and transmit daily in real-time over 15 million data characters and 2,000 weather charts world-wide. The WWW also supports a number of international geophysical and environmental programmes. In particular, it facilitates the effective and timely distribution of information about seismic activity, tsunamis, movement of volcanic ash and radioactive substances resulting from accidental release. Improvements in observing the atmosphere and the earth surface, in telecommunications, satellite technology and computers are being continuously built into the WWW and other WMO Programmes to monitor, understand and predict weather and climate.
Many of the improvements in the WWW have been associated with the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) which was launched in 1967, with the collaboration of the International Council for Science (ICSU). GARP has made an impressive contribution to the understanding of atmospheric processes and the advancement of weather prediction through a series of regional and global experiments such as the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (1974), the Monsoon Experiments (1978/1979) and the Global Weather Experiment (1978-1979). Such historic large-scale experiments have contributed to the remarkable achievements that have moved the timescale of skilful weather forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) out to 8 to 10 days and beyond in mid-latitudes. There is scope for improving the performance of the NWP techniques in some regions of the world such as the tropics where the networks of conventional surface and upper-air observations are currently sparse. Significant advances have been made in meso-scale and in limited area modelling leading to improved understanding and forecasting of local and regional severe weather hazards.
It has been conservatively estimated that the average benefit-to-cost ratio of weather and climate information in most countries is 10 to 1. The improved forecasts are invaluable for a wide range of socio-economic activities as well as in the provision of early warnings of weather- and climate-related natural disasters. It is estimated that natural disasters claim about 250,000 lives and cost between US$ 50 to 100 thousand million in property damage every year. Statistics over the century show that about 70% of all natural disasters are meteorological and hydrological in origin and include floods, droughts, tropical cyclones as well as land- slides, forest fires and insect infestations.
The WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme, established in 1971, has made important contributions in enhancing the capabilities of Members to cooperate in developing and accessing improved forecasts of tropical cyclones, resulting in an effective dissemination of warnings and wider awareness and preparedness of vulnerable populations. A major component of this programme in the designation of five regional specialized meteorological centres for tropical cyclones with the mission of providing overall forecast and warning guidance and coordination of tropical weather. In Bangladesh, for example, such activities led tropical cyclones of similar intensity to cause 200 deaths in 1994, compared to 138,000 in 1991 and 300,000 in 1971. In the context of its Plan of Action for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), WMO implemented a number of projects related to capacity building and technology transfer.
An early initiative where WMO played an important role in advancing our knowledge of atmospheric processes was the International Geophysical Year (1957/1958). This global initiative was the origin of the Global Ozone Observing System which subsequently merged with the Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network under WMO's Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). Continuous monitoring of atmospheric composition and research into its effects on the climate system has enabled WMO to make significant contributions to environmental protection since the early seventies. WMO contributed significantly to the preparations of the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, which led to the establishment of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In 1975, WMO issued the first scientific statement on the "modifications of the ozone layer", which led to the formulation in 1977, of the first International Plan of Action for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. Subsequent assessments by WMO provided the basis for the 1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer, the 1987 Montreal Protocol and the subsequent amendments, bringing hope for the recovery of the ozone layer in the first half of the 21st century. In addition to ozone measurements, GAW with 340 fully operational stations, including 22 global stations, in 80 countries, provides measurements for long-term accounting of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the complex atmospheric chemical reactions that determine the change, transformation, lifetimes and transport of these gases and particles which can contribute to the projected climate change and its potential impact. Through the GAW, WMO has been providing a vital input to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Over the last quarter of the 20th century, data from such measurements led WMO to spearhead the campaign to alert the world community to the causes and potential effects of climate change and variability. In 1976, WMO issued the first statement on the threat to the global climate. In 1979, following the First World Climate Conference, WMO established the World Climate Programme (WCP), which has been the basis for international action in the climate area. The Programme has led to the strengthening of Members' capabilities in the monitoring of climate, detection of climate change, development of climate databases, rescue of deteriorating data records, the maintenance of historical surveys, as well as in the applications of climate information to various socio-economic activities.
An important component of WCP is the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), which coordinates research into the climate system, its variability and predictability, through various projects such as those on the world ocean circulation and the global energy and water cycle. The findings of the WCRP enabled the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988, to assess scientific information on climate change and its potential impact, and to formulate response strategies. In addition to the establishment of the IPCC, WMO undertook a number of other initiatives related to climate. These include the organization of the Second World Climate Conference (1990); the convening with UNEP of the first meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); the establishment, with other partners, in 1993 of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) designed to meet the needs for climate system monitoring through observations in the atmosphere, at the land surface and in the oceans; the co-sponsorship of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS); and, the formulation of the Climate Agenda which serves as a comprehensive integrating framework of climate-related international programmes.
Over the last decade, a new era has dawned for seasonal and climate prediction following the success of the WCRP Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project (TOGA) (1985-1994). The project has led to the establishment of the scientific basis for skilful predictions of the El-Niño sea surface temperature anomalies and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation in multi-seasonal to inter-annual time scales. Such information is used in disaster preparedness in those parts of the world where El Niño signals are strong, and in developing consensus regional climate outlooks. The objective of the Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project is to enhance the capacity of the NMHSs in making maximum use of current and new advances in climate science in areas such as long-term plannng of food security and water resources management.
WMO has made important contributions to food security. In several countries, agrometeorological practices have been successfully applied in several countries to assist in developing cost-effective and sustainable agricultural systems. In this respect, WMO has also actively supported the UN Convention to Combat Desertification through the development of appropriate strategies for the mitigation of the effects of droughts, through drought prediction, drought preparedness and capacity building. However, it is estimated that by the year 2010, about 700 million people will be undernourished. WMO will continue to collaborate with relevant organizations in addressing this important issue.
With the ever increasing demand for freshwater for domestic, industrial, agricultural and other purposes, it is clear that this pattern is not sustainable, whether from an economic, social or environmental point of view. Pollution, the potential impact of climate change as well as conflicts between countries that share basins and aquifers will be some of the major issues of the twenty-first century. It is estimated that by the year 2025, about two-thirds of the world population may well face moderate to severe water stress compared to one-third at the present time. WMO's Hydrology and Water Resources Programme supports the NMHSs in the assessment of the quantity and quality of water resources as well as in the mitigation of water-related hazards through improved hydrological forecasting and the protection of the environment. WMO's predcessor, IMO, developed the first international programme in this field in 1946. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, support and guidance have been offered to the national Hydrological Services concerned. The 1980s saw the establishment of HOMS - a system for the international exchange of proven technology in hydrology. In January 1992, WMO convened the International Conference on Water and the Environment in Dublin which acted as the preparatory meeting on freshwater for the Rio Earth Summit later that year. The 1990s have seen the launching of the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) by which WMO is supporting the collection and dissemination of water-related data and information from an integrated regional and global networks of observing stations. All such efforts will have to be maintained and strengthened in the future.
Over the last 50 years, WMO has seen its membership grow from 30 to 185 when a number of countries from Africa, Eastern and Central Europe and South-West Pacific joined the Organization. WMO has provided active support to the development of their Services both in terms of infrastructure and human resources. In the last decade, WMO has implemented programmes worth US$200 million in support of technical and regional development projects, which have contributed to bridge the gap between developing and developed nations, especially through its Technical Cooperation Programme. WMO encourages Member countries to be full partners in regional and global collaboration. In this respect, WMO had established a Voluntary Cooperation Programme which has continued to support the various programmes of WMO especially its WWW. WMO also strengthened its Regional Programme and established Regional and Subregional Offices to bring the Organization closer to the Members so that they can benefit further from WMO Programmes and activities. WMO has also been fostering closer collaboration with regional economic groupings and funding institutions in support of the NMHSs. These efforts will be actively pursued in the new millennium.
Closely associated with the capacity building efforts is WMO's Education and Training Programme which facilitates human resource development of the staff of the NMHSs. In the last two decades, up to 400 persons have been receiving WMO training fellowships annually for studies at national meteorological educational institutions or at WMO's 23 Regional Meteorological Training Centres. Within this Programme WMO has implemented in the last decade about 20 training events per year and has co-sponsored a similar number of training events in meteorology and operational hydrology organized by other institutions or agencies. To meet the future challenges, WMO has continually reviewed the curricula and the classification of meteorological personnel, and provided guidance and relevant materials for the training of meteorologists to further promote the capacity of NMHSs to address the increasingly complex demands on the Services.
In promoting meteorology, hydrology and related geophysical sciences in support of NMHSs, WMO has fostered close cooperation with relevant international, regional and national institutions. At global level, it cooperates with organizations of the UN system, relevant scientific bodies such as ICSU as well as academic and research institutions. In particular, WMO collaborates with the UN system organizations in the formulation and implementation of global strategies related to sustainable development such as Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, and of plans of actions of global conferences such as the World Food Summit and Habitat II. At regional level, WMO collaborates with relevant economic communities and promotes centres such as the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development in Niger and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Singapore. Such collaboration will be strengthened in support of the NMHSs.
Looking back to the last fifty years, we can see that the WMO founding fathers were right in envisaging the many achievements of WMO. They were also right in anticipating the serious challenges that would lie ahead. Over the next few decades, a number of the challenges would require urgent attention. The process of globalisation, market-led economies, population growth, the increasing diversity of human activities and environmental degradation will inevitably require improved and longer-range forecasts of weather and climate events. There will also be the need, within the context of its Applications of Meteorology Programme especially related to agricultural meteorology, aeronautical meteorology and marine meteorology and associated oceanographic activities, for WMO to ensure improved public weather services; increased safety of travel by air, land and sea; increased support to agriculture and management of water, energy and other resources; and anticipate, avert or minimize the impacts of desertification and other threats to the global environment. In the light of the growing impact of natural disasters on sustainable development, WMO will contribute to the goals of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the successor of IDNDR, by implementing improved detection, prediction and warning systems targeted at mitigating the social and economic impacts of natural disasters.
WMO's vision for the future is therefore to support Members' efforts in addressing these and other related issues in the context of the unique framework of cooperation that it has fostered during the later half of the twentieth century. Advances in science and technology within the next 50 years will present new frontiers of knowledge that will require additional capital investments. Improvements in satellite data collection, computing and information technology will strengthen WMO's ability to provide effective service to all users of meteorological and hydrological information. In this respect, WMO will foster increased collaboration in the geosciences. This will enable WMO to provide continued leadership in monitoring the atmosphere and in enhancing early warning capabilities of impending natural disasters and other environmental emergencies.
Preparing for the challenges of the next century, as highlighted in its long-term plan for the first decade, WMO will continue to promote sustainable development and capacity building. This will be carried out within the framework of Agenda 21, and related international conventions such as those on the protection of the ozone layer, climate change, desertification, biodiversity as well as those related to the plans of action on the sustainable development of Small Island Developing States, food security, energy production and consumption, habitat and urban environment, health and protection of the atmosphere. As a further contribution to bridge the gap between national Meteorological and Hydrological Services of developing and developed countries, WMO will promote the strengthening of legislative acts establishing NMHS's and encourage training in new areas such as commercialization, public information and management. It will also continue to promote the principle of free and unrestricted international exchange of meteorological and hydrological data and products.
In its 50 years of service to humanity, WMO has given further strength to the original flame of its predecessor, the International Meteorological Organisation. The United Nations Secretary-General has expressed his conviction "that the role of WMO will be even more important in the future." We therefore mark this Meteorological Day, in the context of the new millennium, with increasing trust that, through closer cooperation among the NMHS's and partner organizations, we can confidently address some of the most daunting environmental and socio-economic challenges that humanity will face in the twenty-first century. The dynamism and innovative approaches inherent in the Organization will be the hallmark of its future strength.
In paying tribute to all those who have contributed to the advancement of meteorology, hydrology and related geophysical sciences, we call upon governments and their NMHS's, regional and international organizations, the scientific community including the academia, to join forces with WMO in sharing its vision for the future, and in strengthening their resolve in contributing to the well being and sustainable development of humanity in the new millennium.