Satellite and Radar Loop of an MCV over the Midwestern US on May 8, 2009
Summary
Mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are diabatically induced, mid-tropospheric circulations that form within mesoscale convective systems, that often subsist beyond the “parent” convective system, and that can even lead to the formation of new mesoscale storm systems. Typically forming during late spring and early summer, MCVs can cause widespread, potentially heavy rainfall that can produce localized flash flooding. They are also capable of producing localized severe weather, such as strong winds, hail, and even tornadoes.
Despite the high impacts on people, little has be done to investigate the effectiveness of ensemble model forecasts with MCV formation and strength. This project compared the forcecasts produced by the NAM and WRF to RUC data. The RUC data was a surrogate for observations of the actual MCV. After compiling the data from the various models, statisics were used to determine the effectiveness of each model. Correlations were derived on average and maximum vorticity, and distance errors. Based on those correlations, it can be determined how accurate of a forecast the model produced.
Dr. Adam Clark
Currently a research scientist at CIMMS, Adam works with NSSL's Collaborative Research and Forecasting Team (CRAFT) developing model diagnostics, verification, and visualization strategies for high resolution ensemble forecasts, as well as exploring model physics sensitivities and predictability at convective scales.