Probabilities within 200 km of KOUN |
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| Hours | Tornado | Hail | 1 inch+ rains | Data collection |
| Fri 10am - Fri 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Fri 4pm - Sat 4am | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Sat 4am - Sat 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Sat 4pm - Sun 4am | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| Sun 4am - Mon 4am | Low | HIGH | Moderate | HIGH |
| -- Low: 0% to 33% -- Moderate: 33% to 67% -- High: 67% to 100% -- | ||||
FORECAST - 10am Friday 14 March: Today: No precipitation expected. Tonight: No precipitation expected. Saturday: Thunderstorms are very unlikely during the day due to meager moisture, lack of focus, and strong capping inversion. Saturday night: A low level jet will kick in and rapidly transport moisture into the region. This may be enough to kick off a few elevated thunderstorms, with some marginal hail threat. Sunday: Any warm air advection activity from Saturday night should move away or dissipate early in the morning. A new round of thunderstorms may develop along the dryline in far western Oklahoma late in the day. OUTLOOK: Sunday night: Dryline storms may consolidate into an MCS and approach central Oklahoma. With better moisture and upper support, some of these storms may be severe with a threat for hail. Tornado probability looks low due to marginal wind shear and relatively low dewpoints. Monday: Major model differences as to geometry and location of ejecting storm, and concerns about overnight convection lead to a low confidence forecast. Shear is likely to be strong in the warm sector, and dewpoints could approach the mid 60s, so severe thunderstorms will continue to be a concern in the region. Tuesday and beyond: No other major events appearing on the horizon. ...Scharf