Probabilities within 200 km of KOUN |
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| Hours | Tornado | Hail | 1 inch+ rains | Data collection |
| Sat 10am - Sat 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Sat 4pm - Sun 4am | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Sun 4am - Sun 4pm | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Sun 4pm - Mon 4am | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| Mon 4am - Tue 4am | Low | HIGH | Moderate | HIGH |
| -- Low: 0% to 33% -- Moderate: 33% to 67% -- High: 67% to 100% -- | ||||
UPDATE - 10pm Saturday 15 March: The air conditioner has apparently failed in the radar shop, so the radar cannot currently be operated. It is unknown when the radar will again be available. FORECAST - 10am Saturday 15 March: Today: No precipitation expected. Tonight: Thunderstorms may form along the dryline in the South Plains of Texas this afternoon, and approach the southwestern part of Oklahoma and western North Texas. The storms will be moving into more meager moisture, and lack of upper support will preclude storm organization. Secondary activity may develop after midnight in warm air advection regime, but this activity is not likely to produce hail. Sunday: Thunderstorms are unlikely most of the day, due to lack of focused boundary layer convergence, meager moisture and strong capping inversion. Sunday night: Thunderstorms may again develop along the dryline in the eastern Texas panhandle late in the afternoon. These storms will likely have better upper support and more rich low level moisture, so they may move further into Oklahoma during the evening. These storms may produce hail. Monday: Western low will rapidly amplify, inducing strong pressure falls in the lee of the Colorado Rockies. This will tend to back surface flow as the nose of the upper jet (110-120 kts at 250 mb) finally reaches the dryline over west Texas. A strong shortwave trough will approach from the southwest during the day. The dryline will again setup over western Oklahoma and western North Texas. A bulge in the dryline is likely to develop over western North Texas as the jet crosses overhead. The approach of the shortwave trough will erode the cap, and strong confluence along the dryline will spark thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Shear will be favorable for supercells, particularly south of Norman. Quality of low level moisture may be one mitigating factor for significant severe. Tornadoes, hail, and heavy rain will all be threats between 3 pm and midnight Monday. OUTLOOK: Monday night: Monday's thunderstorms will likely continue, particularly south and east of Norman, well into the evening. Tuesday: Models continue slowing down the system, suggesting another round of thunderstorms may develop behind Monday's activity, particularly southeast of Norman. Very cold air aloft (-25C at 500) may lead to low topped thunderstorms with hail threat behind the surface trough. Wednesday and beyond: Another system may approach the area Saturday-Sunday the 22nd-23rd. ...Scharf