David J. Karoly

Recent Publications (1999-2005)

Karoly, D.J., and Q. Wu (2005) Detection of regional surface temperature trends. J. Climate, 18, 4337-4343. [PDF, 1.2MB]

Karoly, D.J., and K. Braganza (2005) A new approach to detection of anthropogenic temperature changes in the Australian region. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 57-67. [PDF, 774KB]

Karoly, D.J., and K. Braganza (2005) Attribution of recent temperature changes in the Australian region. J. Climate, 18, 457-464. [PDF, 221KB]

Braganza, K., D.J. Karoly, A.C. Hirst, A.C. Hirst, P. Stott, R.J. Stouffer, and S.F.B. Tett (2004) Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part II - Attribution of climate change during the 20th century. Climate Dynamics, 22, 823-838. [PDF, 1.9MB]

Braganza, K., D.J. Karoly, and J. Arblaster (2004) Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13217, doi:10.1029/2004GL019998. [PDF, 187KB]

The Australian Climate Group (2004) Climate change - Solutions for Australia. (Report by A. Coleman, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Karoly, I. Lowe, A. McMichael, C. Mitchell, G. Pearman, P. Scaife, and A. Reynolds), WWF Australia, Sydney, Australia, 35 pp. [PDF, 1.6MB]

Karoly, D.J., K. Braganza, P.A. Stott, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Broccoli, and K.W. Dixon (2003) Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science, 302, 1200-1203. [PDF, 240KB]

Karoly, D.J. (2003) Ozone and climate change. Science, 302, 236-237. [PDF, 142KB]

Cai, W., P.H. Whetton, and D.J. Karoly (2003) The response of the Antarctic Oscillation to increasing and stabilized atmospheric CO₂. J. Climate, 16, 1525-1538. [PDF, 3.0MB]

Grainger, S., and D.J. Karoly (2003) A transport model study of the breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole in November 2000. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1368, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016494. [PDF, 483KB]

Li, S., E.C. Cordero and D.J. Karoly (2003) Three-dimensional simulations of the springtime breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole, Aust. Met. Mag., 52, 1-9. [PDF, 1.2MB]

Chane-Ming, F., F.M. Guest and D.J. Karoly (2003) Gravity waves observed in temperature, wind and ozone data over Macquarie Island, Aust. Met. Mag., 52, 11-21.

Karoly, D.J., J.F.B. Mitchell, M.R. Allen, G. Hegerl, F. Zwiers, and J. Marengo (2003) Comment on Soon et al. (2001) Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties. Clim. Res., 24, 91-92. [PDF, 30KB]

Karoly, D., J. Risbey, A. Reynolds, and K. Braganza (2003) Global warming contributes to Australia’s worst drought. Australasian Science, April 2003 issue, 14-17.

Karoly, D., J. Risbey, , and A. Reynolds (2003) Global warming contributes to Australia’s worst drought. WWF Australia, 8 pp. [PDF, 819KB]

Braganza, K., D.J. Karoly, A.C. Hirst, M.E. Mann, P. Stott, R.J. Stouffer, and S.F.B. Tett (2003) Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I - Variability and correlation structure. Climate Dynamics, 20, 491-502. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-002-0286-0. [PDF, 374KB]

Karoly, D.J., and G. Teggart (2002) Climate change science: An update of current understanding and uncertainties, J. Ellis and J. Zillman Eds., Aust. Academy of Tech. Sciences and Eng., Parkville, Vic., 7pp.

Li, S., E.C. Cordero and D.J. Karoly (2002) Transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex from a three-dimensional transport model. J. Geophys. Res., 107 (D11), 4132, DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000508. [PDF, 174KB]

Hall, J.D., A.J. Matthews, and D.J. Karoly (2001) The modulation of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,129, 2970-2982. [PDF, 1.2MB]

Mitchell, J.F.B., D.J. Karoly, M.R. Allen, G. Hegerl, F. Zwiers, and J. Marengo (2001) Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., et al., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 695-738. (Available from www.ipcc.ch)

Karoly, D.J., and K. Braganza (2001) Identifying global climate change using simple indices. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2205-2208.

Sexton, D.M.H., D.P. Rowell, C.K. Folland, and D.J. Karoly (2001) Detection of anthropogenic climate change using an atmospheric GCM. Climate Dynamics, 17, 669-685.

Williams, A.A.J., D.J. Karoly and N. Tapper (2001) The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change. Climatic Change, 49, 171-191. [PDF, 211KB]

Risbey, J.S., M. Kandlikar and D.J. Karoly (2000) A framework to articulate and quantify uncertainties in climate change detection and attribution. Climate Research, 16, 61-78. [PDF, 147KB]

Karoly, D.J. (2000) Ready for IPCC-2001: A practical approach to a daunting task (Editorial comment). Climatic Change, 45, 469-470.

Guest, F.M., M.J. Reeder, C.J. Marks and D.J. Karoly (2000) Inertia-gravity waves observed in the lower stratosphere over Macquarie Island. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 737-752. [PDF, 262KB]

Williams, A.A.J., and D.J. Karoly (1999) Extreme fire weather in Australia and the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Aust. Met. Mag., 48, 15-22.