What is SubX?

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a NOAA/Climate Testbed project focused on subseasonal predictability and predictions. Seven global models are producing seventeen years of ensemble retrospecive forecasts initialized weekly to investigate subseasonal prediction and predictability. Additionally, one-year of real-time predictions will be produced and provided to the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center as additional guidance for their week-3/4 outlooks. Each modeling group follows the SubX Protocol for their re-forecasts and real-time forecasts. The project will test the skill of individual prediction systems as well as multi-model combinations.

The Objectives of the SubX Project are:

  • Collecting and serving data both internally at CPC for use by operational forecasters and for the external community via the IRI data library
  • Providing a baseline verification particularly for the weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation probability forecasts
  • Evaluating the skill of individual model systems
  • Investigating multi-model combinations including selecting suitable models, optimizing the design of the system, and evaluation of the prediction products
  • Enhancing communications between operational forecasts and the model forecast producers
  • Participation in the NOAA/MAPP S2S Task Force